Prediction Tracker

I make falsifiable predictions about NWA's tech ecosystem. Track my accuracy here.

4
Active
2
Resolved
50%
Accuracy

Accuracy Over Time

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q6

Active Predictions (4)

Walmart will announce a major AI lab expansion in Bentonville within 90 days

Pending
Confidence
72%
Made: 2025-12-15
Deadline: 2026-03-15
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • 12 senior AI/ML positions posted in past 30 days
  • Permit filed for building renovation on SE 8th St
  • Executive quotes in Arkansas Business about AI investment
Falsification Criteria

No announcement by deadline, or announcement is for a different location

JB Hunt will partner with an autonomous trucking startup by Q2 2026

Pending
Confidence
58%
Made: 2025-12-20
Deadline: 2026-06-30
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • Multiple autonomous vehicle engineer positions posted
  • CEO mentioned 'strategic partnerships' in Q3 earnings call
  • Increased presence at autonomous vehicle conferences
Falsification Criteria

No partnership announcement by deadline

At least 2 NWA startups will announce Series A rounds totaling $20M+ in Q1 2026

Pending
Confidence
65%
Made: 2025-12-01
Deadline: 2026-03-31
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • Increased VC activity signals from Heartland Summit
  • 3 stealth startups filed LLCs with 'Inc' designation
  • Local angel network reporting higher deal flow
Falsification Criteria

Fewer than 2 announcements, or total below $20M

Tyson Foods will hire a Chief AI Officer or equivalent role

Pending
Confidence
45%
Made: 2025-11-15
Deadline: 2026-06-30
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • Digital transformation initiative mentioned in annual report
  • Competitor Cargill made similar hire in 2025
  • 'Digital twin' appearing in job postings suggests AI focus
Falsification Criteria

No C-level AI hire announced by deadline

Resolved (2)

NWA Tech Summit 2025 will have 20% higher attendance than 2024

Correct
Confidence
80%
Made: 2025-10-01
Deadline: 2025-11-15
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • Early bird tickets sold out 2 weeks faster
  • More sponsor commitments than previous year
  • Venue expanded to accommodate demand
Falsification Criteria

Official attendance figures show less than 20% growth

Resolution

Confirmed: 2,400 attendees vs 1,950 in 2024 (23% increase)

A major tech company will open a new office in NWA by end of 2025

Wrong
Confidence
55%
Made: 2025-06-01
Deadline: 2025-12-31
View evidence & criteria
Evidence
  • Economic development board reported active discussions
  • Commercial real estate inquiries from out-of-state tech firms
Falsification Criteria

No announcement of new office from company with $1B+ market cap

Resolution

No major tech company office announcements in 2025

How predictions work: Each prediction includes a confidence level, clear evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. Predictions are resolved based on public announcements or deadline expiration. I track my accuracy honestly, including failures.