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Civic Signal Desk / Predictions

Prediction ledger with visible evidence and public scorekeeping

This board only shows promoted predictions. Each call has a public deadline, supporting evidence, and a falsification test; outcomes only enter the scorecard after a public verification pass can cite the result.

How this board works

Only calls that clear review count toward the public ledger. Drafts stay out of view until they do.

The confidence badge is a calibrated evidence-strength estimate assigned at filing time, not a promise of certainty. Lower-confidence calls can still belong on the board when the evidence is public and the deadline is testable.

At deadline, every call is verified against public reporting and scored a hit or a miss. Calls that expire without public confirmation are marked Unverified and excluded from the accuracy score — misses stay on the board either way.

Ground Rules
These are public, falsifiable calls based on current reporting, not recommendations to buy, sell, hire, fund, or accuse. Promoted predictions count toward public accuracy, and misses remain visible alongside the hits. Expired calls that cannot be verified either way are labeled separately instead of being counted as misses.
Active board
7
Promoted predictions currently live on the public desk.
Verified resolutions
12
10 hits · 2 misses, each verified against public reporting.
Accuracy
83%
Share of verified resolutions that landed as hits; 3 unverified expirations excluded.
Next deadline
Oct 31, 2026
The Rogers City Council will adopt the ordinance authorizing an amendment to the City of Rogers franchise agreement with LRS South, LLC d.b.a. GFL Environmental, Inc. approving a solid waste disposal fee increase, with the new fee amount or per-customer rate stated in the posted ordinance or City Council minutes, by October 31, 2026.
Town promises
5
Government commitments extracted from public minutes and packets that are still pending verification.
Promises on the record
100%
4 kept · 0 broken across 4 resolved promises; 15 unresolvable excluded.
Town promise ledger

Government commitments with source documents

Every row cites the public document that created the commitment; kept and broken calls only enter the score once we can cite public evidence of the outcome.
OpenContract ExtensionDue in 61 days

Section III Item 2 from the City Council Agenda: Resolution Authorizing a Contract Amendment to the Water and Wastewater Capacity Fee Analysis

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-23
Due
2026-12-31

“...essional services agreement Amendment with Raftelis Finances Consultants, Inc. (Raftelis) reducing the contract amount by $16,200.00 for a revised amount not to exceed $43,400 and extending the contract time to December 31, 2026. Utility Board approved 4-0. A budget adjustment is needed. Attachment 17678: Bid Award Change Order Budget Adjustment Waiver of Bid Emergency Clause Ordinance Resolution $ $ Expe...”

OpenPayment DeadlineDue in 304 days

Resolution to Accept Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) Grant

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-23
Due
2027-08-31

“...lease visit https://sam.gov/content/help. The FY 2025 award may be used for National Institute of Justice (NIJ) compliant armored vests which were ordered after April 1, 2025. The deadline to request payments from the FY 2025 award is August 31, 2027 or until all available funds have been requested. Awards will not be extended past that date, and any unused funds will be forfeited. As a reminder, body armor vests purchased wit...”

OpenPayment DeadlineDue in 304 days

Section II Item 2 from the City Council Agenda: Resolution to Accept Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) Grant

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-23
Due
2027-08-31

“...lease visit https://sam.gov/content/help. The FY 2025 award may be used for National Institute of Justice (NIJ) compliant armored vests which were ordered after April 1, 2025. The deadline to request payments from the FY 2025 award is August 31, 2027 or until all available funds have been requested. Awards will not be extended past that date, and any unused funds will be forfeited. As a reminder, body armor vests purchased wit...”

OpenCompletion Windowwithin 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed

The contract documents require the furnishing of 100 percent performance and payment bonds prior to authorization of the Notice to Proceed. Completion of the project is to be within 360 days from the date of the issuance

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-07-07
Due
within 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed

“20. The contract documents require the furnishing of 100 percent performance and payment bonds prior to authorization of the Notice to Proceed. Completion of the project is to be within 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Sincerely, BURNS & McDONNELL Jonathan Ely, PE Project Manager enclosures cc: Mr. Trevel Young – City of Fayettevi...”

OpenCompletion Windowwithin 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed

The contract documents require the furnishing of 100 percent performance and payment bonds prior to authorization of the Notice to Proceed. Completion of the project is to be within 360 days from the date of the issuance

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-30
Due
within 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed

“20. The contract documents require the furnishing of 100 percent performance and payment bonds prior to authorization of the Notice to Proceed. Completion of the project is to be within 360 days from the date of the issuance of the Notice to Proceed. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Sincerely, BURNS & McDONNELL Jonathan Ely, PE Project Manager enclosures cc: Mr. Trevel Young – City of Fayettevi...”

KeptPublic Hearing ScheduledChecked Sep 1, 2026

Standard T5.1 T5.2 Area Standards Max Building Coverage (% of lot) 90% 100% Max. Impervious Surface (% of lot) 100% 100% Principal Buildings Min. Exterior Yard (ft) 0 0 Max. Exterior Yard (ft) 30’ 10’ Min. Building Occup

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-09-01
Due
2026-09-01
Case RZ26-00446

“...'0' SCALE IN FEET DEPT. OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DIVISION 301 W. CHESTNUT PHONE: (479) 621-1186 FAX: (479) 986-6896 NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING Notice is hereby given that a public hearing will be held before the Rogers Planning Commission in the Rogers City Hall at 301 West Chestnut Street on September 1, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. on the application by Rogers CCRC Facility (Case #: RZ26-00446) to rezone 9.23 acres at the SE corner of S. 31 st Street & W. Green Acres Dr. from the T2 (Rural) zoning distric...”

Resolution

The Rogers Planning Commission's published agenda for its September 1, 2026 meeting includes item RZ26-00446 (Rogers CCRC Facility, 9.23 acres at the SE corner of S. 31st St. & W. Green Acres Dr.) together with the Notice of Public Hearing stating the hearing would be held at Rogers City Hall, 301 W. Chestnut St., on September 1, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. The city's official Planning Commission page corroborates that the body meets the 1st and 3rd Tuesday of each month at 5:30 p.m. in the Council Chambers at 301 W. Chestnut, and September 1, 2026 is a first Tuesday. On that record, the public heari...

KeptPublic Hearing ScheduledChecked Jul 5, 2026

Planning Commission agenda item (2026-07-07): i. RZ26-00236 - 3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Rd. A request by Louis Froud to rezone 3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Rd. from the T5.2 (City Medium-Intensity) zoning dist

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-07-07
Due
2026-06-16
Case RZ26-00236

“...teville, AR 72704 DEPT. OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DIVISION 301 W. CHESTNUT PHONE: (479) 621-1186 FAX: (479) 986-6896 NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING Notice is hereby given that a public hearing will be held before the Rogers Planning Commission in the Rogers City Hall at 301 West Chestnut Street on June 16, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. on the application by Bates and Associates, Inc on behalf of Louis Froud (Case #: RZ26-00236) to rezone ±3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Road from the T5.2 (City Medium-Intens...”

Resolution

The City of Rogers' official Legal Notices page confirms that a public hearing for Case #RZ26-00236 (Louis Froud rezone request, ±3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Road) was publicly noticed and scheduled before the Rogers Planning Commission on June 16, 2026, at 5:30 p.m. — exactly on the promised due horizon. The notice was posted on the official City of Rogers website, satisfying the public_hearing_scheduled commitment. No evidence of cancellation or postponement was found.

Resolution evidence
KeptPublic Hearing ScheduledChecked Jul 5, 2026

Planning Commission agenda item (2026-06-16): a. RZ26-00260 - 835 S. 40th Street and the 26.15 acres surrounding parcel A request by Blockwright Studio to rezone 835 S. 40th Street and the 26.15 acres surrounding from th

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-16
Due
2026-06-16
Case RZ26-00260

“...Attachment 4588: DEPT. OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DIVISION 301 W. CHESTNUT PHONE: (479) 621-1186 FAX: (479) 986-6896 NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING Notice is hereby given that a public hearing will be held before the Rogers Planning Commission in the Rogers City Hall at 301 West Chestnut Street on June 16, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. on the application by Blockwright Studio (Case #: RZ26-00260) to rezone 835 S. 40 th Street and the +26.15 acres surrounding from the T2 (Rural) zoning district to the T4.2 (Ne...”

Resolution

The City of Rogers' official legal notices page confirms that a public hearing for Case #RZ26-00260 (Blockwright Studio's rezone application for 835 S. 40th Street and surrounding 26.15 acres) was formally noticed and scheduled before the Rogers Planning Commission for June 16, 2026 at 5:30 p.m., consistent with the promise. No evidence of cancellation or postponement was found, and the promise type requires only that the public hearing be scheduled and held on that date.

KeptPublic Hearing ScheduledChecked Jul 5, 2026

Planning Commission agenda item (2026-06-16): a. RZ26-00236 - 3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Rd. A request by Louis Froud to rezone 3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Rd. from the T5.2 (City Medium-Intensity) zoning dist

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-06-16
Due
2026-06-16
Case RZ26-00236

“...Attachment 4590: DEPT. OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DIVISION 301 W. CHESTNUT PHONE: (479) 621-1186 FAX: (479) 986-6896 NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING Notice is hereby given that a public hearing will be held before the Rogers Planning Commission in the Rogers City Hall at 301 West Chestnut Street on June 16, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. on the application by Bates and Associates, Inc on behalf of Louis Froud (Case #: RZ26-00236) to rezone ±3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Road from the T5.2 (City Medium-Intens...”

Resolution

The City of Rogers, AR published an official legal notice confirming that the public hearing for Case #RZ26-00236 (Louis Froud rezone, ±3.67 acres west of 701 W. Hudson Road) was scheduled before the Rogers Planning Commission on June 16, 2026 at 5:30 p.m., consistent with the promise. The city's own policy states that scheduled public hearings will not be tabled or postponed, and no cancellation or postponement notice was found. The promise type was 'public_hearing_scheduled,' and the official legal notice from ar-rogers.civicplus.com confirms the hearing was duly noticed and placed on the...

UnresolvableTabled UntilChecked Oct 20, 2026

Approving October 6, 2026 meeting minutes

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-10-20
Due
2026-10-20

“...equested the prior week. Staff recommended the item be tabled to allow time to complete its analysis. Mr. Watkins, on behalf of the applicant, concurred with the request to table. Motion by Jensen, second by Stevens, to table the request to the October 20, 2026 Board of Adjustment meeting. Voice vote: Unanimous - Yes. Motion carried. TABLED. Reports None. ADJOURN There being no further business, the Chair adjourned the meeting at 5:44 PM. ATTEST: APPROVED: ___________________________ _________________________...”

Resolution

The City of Rogers calendar confirms a Planning Commission Meeting was scheduled for Tuesday, October 20, 2026, the same day as the due horizon, with Planning Commission meetings held at 5:30 p.m. in Council Chambers. As of October 20, 2026, no approved minutes, action summary, or other official record showing whether the October 6, 2026 minutes were approved had been posted to the city's Agenda Center or CivicClerk portal. Without a post-meeting record, the outcome cannot be verified either way at this time.

UnresolvableTabled UntilChecked Sep 2, 2026

RZ26-00419: a. Approving August 18, 2026 meeting minutes

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-09-01
Due
2026-09-01
Case RZ26-00419

“...nt's timeline concerns and a preference to explore a parking solution supporting the requested T4.2 zoning rather than approving a lesser district or denying the request outright. Motion by Stevens, second by Jensen to table the request until the September 1, 2026 meeting. Voice vote: Unanimous -- Yes. Motion carried. TABLED. Reports Commissioners discussed the August 4, 2026 Mount Hebron Rd. rezone request (RZ26 -00345), which City Council did not approve following the Commission's unanimous...”

Resolution

Public records confirm the underlying commitment: the Rogers Planning Commission tabled the Fontana/W. Locust Street rezoning (RZ26-00419, 209 W. Locust St., T3.2 to T4.2) at its August 18, 2026 meeting after parking concerns were raised, per city legal notices and Arkansas Democrat-Gazette coverage dated August 18, 2026. However, no agenda, minutes, staff report, or news account documenting the outcome of the September 1, 2026 Planning Commission meeting was located as of September 2, 2026, so it cannot be verified whether the case was actually taken up by the due horizon. The item is unre...

UnresolvableTabled UntilChecked Aug 1, 2026

RZ26-00354: a. Approving July 21, 2026 meeting minutes

Promised by
Government meeting
Filed
2026-08-04
Due
2020-08-04
Case RZ26-00354

“...process. Burckart emphasizes the intent to build a community with mixed housing types and pedestrian-oriented development. Commissioners and Burckart further discuss the request. Motion by Jensen, second by Burnett to table the request to the August 4, 20206 Planning Commission meeting. Voice vote: Unanimous – Yes, Motion carried. TABLED. Reports ADJOURN There being no further business, the Chair adjourned the meeting at 6:53 p.m. ATTEST: APPROVED: ____________________________ _____________________________...”

Resolution

The Rogers, AR Planning Commission August 4, 2026 meeting — at which approval of the July 21, 2026 minutes (Case RZ26-00354 agenda item) was tabled — is confirmed as scheduled per the city's official legal notices page (rogersar.gov), but has not yet occurred as of the review date of August 1, 2026. No minutes or outcome record for the August 4 meeting are publicly available, making it impossible to verify whether the promise was kept. The 'due horizon' of 2020-08-04 in the tracker is a clear data-entry error; the intended due date is August 4, 2026.

Active board

Active public predictions (7)

OpenDue in 61 days

The Bentonville City Council will adopt a resolution accepting Arkansas Department of Transportation grant funds for the Eagle Way Tunnel & Trail project by December 31, 2026.

Filed
2026-10-09
Deadline
2026-12-31
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

Wrong if, by December 31, 2026, posted City of Bentonville CivicClerk City Council agendas, minutes, or resolution records show no adopted resolution accepting ARDOT grant funds for the Eagle Way Tunnel & Trail, or show the item tabled, withdrawn, or voted down.

OpenDue in 45 days

The denial of Fayetteville conditional use permit case CUP-2026-0041 (south of 3365 N College Ave / H W Allen Co LLC, the relocation site for a Raising Cane's restaurant) will be appealed to the Fayetteville City Council, appearing as an appeal item on a posted City of Fayetteville CivicClerk City Council agenda by December 15, 2026.

Filed
2026-09-15
Deadline
2026-12-15
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

FALSE if no City of Fayetteville City Council agenda posted through Dec. 15, 2026 lists an appeal of CUP-2026-0041 (or the associated North College Avenue conditional use permit denial), including if the applicant instead refiles a new case, withdraws, or takes no action.

OpenDue in 45 days

Springdale-based Tyson Foods, in its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release, will report a full-year beef segment adjusted operating loss of at least $625 million, consistent with or worse than the guidance range of a $625 million to $775 million loss issued Sept. 3, 2026.

Filed
2026-09-04
Deadline
2026-12-15
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

Prove wrong if Tyson Foods' fiscal 2026 full-year results report a beef segment adjusted operating loss smaller than $625 million (or a beef segment profit), or if no fiscal 2026 full-year results are released by Dec. 15, 2026.

OpenDue in 54 days

Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA) will publicly document the construction start of its approved $78.78 million, 111,000-square-foot two-level west terminal expansion — a notice to proceed, groundbreaking event, or board-reported construction commencement recorded in posted XNA Board of Directors minutes, an XNA release, or a named Northwest Arkansas media report — by December 24, 2026.

Filed
2026-08-26
Deadline
2026-12-24
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by Dec. 24, 2026, no XNA board record, XNA release, or named NWA media report documents a notice to proceed, groundbreaking, or start of construction on the west-side terminal expansion — including if the award is rescinded, rebid, or deferred pending financing.

OpenDue today

The Rogers City Council will adopt the ordinance authorizing an amendment to the City of Rogers franchise agreement with LRS South, LLC d.b.a. GFL Environmental, Inc. approving a solid waste disposal fee increase, with the new fee amount or per-customer rate stated in the posted ordinance or City Council minutes, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
2026-08-22
Deadline
2026-10-31
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

FALSE if, by October 31, 2026, no posted Rogers City Council ordinance or minutes record adoption of the GFL Environmental franchise amendment (e.g., the item is withdrawn, held in Public Works Committee, tabled indefinitely, or voted down), or if the adopted ordinance contains no stated fee figure or rate.

OpenDue in 30 days

The University of Arkansas will publish a 150 Forward Reaching Higher roadmap document or news release that states a specific numeric annual research expenditure goal (a named dollar figure, such as $500 million) following the August 24, 2026 kickoff at the Faulkner Performing Arts Center, verifiable on news.uark.edu or an official U of A 150 Forward web page by November 30, 2026.

Filed
2026-08-18
Deadline
2026-11-30
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

FALSE if no official University of Arkansas 150 Forward Reaching Higher publication or news release posted by November 30, 2026 contains a specific dollar-figure target for annual research expenditures.

OpenDue today

Citizens Bank will publicly confirm — via a press release, its own website, or local media coverage — that its newly announced Fayetteville branch has opened to customers and is operational, with a named address in Fayetteville, by October 31, 2026.

Filed
2026-07-20
Deadline
2026-10-31
Open prediction details
What would make this wrong

No public confirmation of a Citizens Bank branch opening in Fayetteville — via the bank's website, a ribbon-cutting announcement, or local media report naming an operational branch — appears by October 31, 2026.

Desk method

Each public prediction carries a calibrated High / Medium / Low confidence badge, visible evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. At deadline the desk verifies the outcome against public reporting: hits and misses are scored with cited evidence, and calls that cannot be confirmed either way are marked Unverified and left out of the accuracy math.