Civic Signal Desk / Predictions

Public calls with visible evidence and a running scorecard

This board only shows promoted predictions. Each call has a public deadline, supporting evidence, and a falsification test so the desk can keep score in the open.

Board posture

Only promoted calls count toward the public ledger. Review and bench candidates stay out of view until they clear the current threshold.

Misses remain on the board when they resolve. The point is calibration, not theater.

Ground Rules
These are public, falsifiable calls based on current reporting, not recommendations to buy, sell, hire, fund, or accuse. Promoted predictions count toward public accuracy, and misses remain visible alongside the hits.
Active board
7
Promoted predictions currently live on the public desk.
Resolved calls
6
Closed predictions that can already count toward calibration.
Accuracy
0%
Share of resolved calls that landed as hits.
Next deadline
Aug 31, 2026
University of Arkansas College of Engineering will announce new research partnerships or funding initiatives by August 31, 2026, following its climb to 99th overall in U.S. News graduate engineering rankings.
Active board

Active public predictions (7)

Open
High83%
Due in 77 days

University of Arkansas College of Engineering will announce new research partnerships or funding initiatives by August 31, 2026, following its climb to 99th overall in U.S. News graduate engineering rankings.

Filed
Jun 1, 2026
Deadline
Aug 31, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

University of Arkansas College of Engineering does not announce any new research partnerships or funding initiatives by August 31, 2026

Open
High85%
Due in 92 days

University of Arkansas School of Law will announce additional faculty hires or administrative appointments by September 15, 2026, following the appointment of Katheleen Guzman as interim dean amid ongoing institutional transitions.

Filed
Jun 1, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No new faculty hires or administrative appointments are announced by the University of Arkansas School of Law by September 15, 2026

Open
High83%
Due in 92 days

Center for Business & Economic Research at University of Arkansas will announce expanded quarterly analysis programming or new regional economic partnerships by September 15, 2026, following the June 2026 Quarterly Business Analysis Luncheon examining economic uncertainty and consumer trends.

Filed
May 31, 2026
Deadline
Sep 15, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No announcements of expanded programming, new partnerships, or additional analysis initiatives by CBER by the deadline date

Open
High82%
Due in 46 days

Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce will announce a new executive director or key leadership hire by July 31, 2026, following the staff layoffs and planned complete reboot

Filed
May 3, 2026
Deadline
Jul 31, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No announcement of executive director or major leadership hire by the Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce by July 31, 2026

Open
High79%
Due in 15 days

The University of Arkansas will announce that the Land of Opportunity Scholarship campaign has reached at least $2 million in total donations by June 2026

Filed
Mar 15, 2026
Deadline
Jun 30, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

The University of Arkansas does not announce reaching $2 million in total donations for the Land of Opportunity Scholarship campaign by the deadline, or announces a lower total amount

Open
High79%
Due in 15 days

Benton County will announce the first industrial development project approved under its new industrial development authority ordinance by June 2026

Filed
Mar 14, 2026
Deadline
Jun 30, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

No industrial development project announcement is made by Benton County under the new authority by the deadline

Open
High82%
Due in 15 days

America's Car-Mart will announce the closure of additional dealership locations beyond those already completed by June 2026

Filed
Mar 13, 2026
Deadline
Jun 30, 2026
Open full case file
What would make this wrong

Car-Mart publicly states no additional dealership closures are planned or announces expansion instead of contraction

Desk method

Each public prediction carries a shared High / Medium / Low confidence label, visible evidence, and explicit falsification criteria. Bench candidates stay private until they are ready, and deadline misses still count.